I am groggy from too much Benadryll and also, really cold. Since I am always hot this means either my office is really freezing or I’m getting sick. I suspect it is the latter, because I am the Baroness of Bad Timing.

I was glancing through an article today about the DNC distributing major money for the mid-terms in Ohio and Florida. I think the mid-terms will be interesting, but I don’t have any strong predictions. Yes, I am the girl who has been saying for almost a year now that I don’t think Obama will win re-election, (this guy disagrees!) but the mid-terms are a different game.  Incumbancy matters more.

Plus, even though I think a lot of people are not happy with Obama (the whole “he let us down” phenomenon, which just makes me sad. Both because it was easy to buy into the idea that Obama wouldn’t let “us” down, and because I believe that when you’re elected president, your first full day in office, after all the inaugural balls are over, they pull you into a room, and say “Ok. You said a lot of nice things during the campaign. But here’s what you’re actually allowed to do. And if you try to do more, we’ll see have you assasinated.” C’mon guys, Let Obama be Obama!)

Anyway, I don’t think this is going to be anywhere near the 1994 midterms, especially since 1994 was unique circumstances.  Newt Gingrich and the Contract With America was (I think) overstated by the media (even now, that’s the reason you hear for the reversal), but still, there’s no Newt equivalent.

1994 saw a larger number of seats open than usual, because a lot of members of Congress retired due to the new pension rules. Plus, a lot of people were deserting the Democratic Party; an ideological realignment, if you will. Combine that with the failure of Clinton’s healthcare plan, and it’s not surprising that people were shifting towards GOP. I guess you could say that the 1992 election also had the Perot effect, and that the 1994 midterms just reflect people coming back to the party after voting indepedent, but I’m not sure that’s valid, because midterms are much more local.

Here is a list of voter shifts, which is kind of interesting.